Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.400218 2.799583 3.242341 3.769282 4.379041 5.062191 5.885429
2026-01-04 1.785638 2.321417 2.979475 3.845711 4.954655 6.325459 8.147658
2026-01-11 1.401061 1.991582 2.780426 3.907900 5.474641 7.571333 10.587155
2026-01-18 1.129846 1.732504 2.596847 3.920982 5.892056 8.710603 13.039714
2026-01-25 0.927796 1.520349 2.424628 3.896233 6.221541 9.742584 15.465253
2026-02-01 0.734392 1.278447 2.156886 3.666883 6.184923 10.199361 17.063471
2026-02-08 0.605761 1.114286 1.978566 3.539869 6.273428 10.838571 19.008651
2026-02-15 0.520296 1.006899 1.873814 3.512803 6.512988 11.739913 21.490557
2026-02-22 0.473442 0.959977 1.865051 3.648983 7.049913 13.207702 25.136164
2026-03-01 0.413131 0.876227 1.774283 3.616658 7.268440 14.128383 27.903675
2026-03-08 0.359215 0.795401 1.675567 3.551497 7.410108 14.916385 30.512228
2026-03-15 0.320326 0.738825 1.615644 3.553003 7.679441 15.974743 33.770079
2026-03-22 0.308970 0.741908 1.683189 3.837993 8.587397 18.447049 40.270085
2026-03-29 0.280427 0.701678 1.652831 3.910312 9.062299 20.112527 45.358149
2026-04-05 0.254563 0.663020 1.619798 3.971616 9.522882 21.810921 50.755879
2026-04-12 0.228861 0.619913 1.569366 3.984253 9.874297 23.317372 55.935102
2026-04-19 0.204338 0.575117 1.507415 3.958894 10.131813 24.645174 60.885386
2026-04-26 0.172494 0.504827 1.370736 3.725887 9.850885 24.690662 62.836044
2026-05-03 0.150101 0.456011 1.280624 3.596863 9.808580 25.293819 66.207804
2026-05-10 0.134962 0.424860 1.231962 3.569366 10.022902 26.550621 71.367340
2026-05-17 0.127923 0.416240 1.243381 3.707671 10.697263 29.049409 80.019891
2026-05-24 0.115436 0.388576 1.196624 3.674840 10.899934 30.358473 85.736589
2026-05-31 0.103314 0.359660 1.141422 3.608661 10.999458 31.408217 90.900700